Shifting Tides: Why Key Voter Demographics Chose Trump in 2024
What Seemed Like a Tight Race Became a Decisive Victory
Despite a tight pre-election polling landscape, Donald Trump secured a resounding win in the 2024 presidential election. Leveraging Engage’s AI-driven survey platform, CloudResearch conducted in-depth interviews with over 500 self-identified Trump supporters across key demographics to understand what drove them to support Trump. This research provides a detailed look into the issues, emotions, and rationale behind the votes from Black, Latino, young, and Independent voters—groups that traditionally don’t solidly align with Republican candidates but did this time around.
This unexpected shift in voters from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024 was enough to put Trump ahead in every battleground state—16% of Black voters (compared to 8% in 2020), 42% of Hispanic voters (compared to 35% in 2020), 46% of under 30 voters (compared to 36% in 2020), and 45% of Independent voters (compared to 41% in 2020) chose Trump over Harris in this election cycle (data in the graph below is from AP VoteCast & Reuters).
Were the Polls Wrong?
People often blame “bad” or “incorrect” polls when an election outcome doesn’t align with polling data. And sometimes polls can be very inaccurate. However, in this election cycle, the polls were relatively accurate in predicting who would vote for Harris. When comparing the predicted percentage of people who would vote for Harris nationally, the actual percentage of people who voted for her was only off by less than .5 of a percentage point—extremely accurate. However, the actual vote for Trump was underestimated. The actual vote for Trump included nationally up to 3.8% more voters than predicted by the polls.
The increase in support for Trump may not have been captured by polls as a lot of voters from key demographics made up their minds relatively close to election day, especially the 21% of Latino voters and 14% of independent voters who made up their minds in the last week.
So why did these voters support Trump? Our findings first shared by CBS News are described in detail below.
Economic Concerns as the Top Priority
When asked what the most important factors were that contributed to their decision to vote for Donald Trump, economic policies ranked #1 by all groups—Black, Latino, young, and independent voters.
Many voters mentioned that they felt financially strained under the current administration and had experienced better economic stability during Trump’s previous term. One 39-year-old Latino man from Texas shared, “I was concerned about the rising prices in all of goods and services. And wanted the government to be more fiscally responsible…My monthly expenses have gone up about 10% since 2021. And I have not seen large wage increases to match that, so I’ve had to scale back quite a bit.”
Voters also expressed a preference for Trump’s stance on minimal government intervention, believing it would encourage financial growth. A 34-year-old Black financial advisor from Delaware noted, “The reasons that influenced my choice were economic resonances on which Trump insisted, such as improving the economic climate, cutting taxes, and increasing business attractiveness. I also appreciate his approach to minimal government intervention, as I think it will be healthy for the financial sector and the market.”
Dissatisfaction with Harris’s Leadership
While Trump’s economic policies were clearly the primary issue on these voters’ minds, many voters said a significant reason for choosing Trump was due to their disappointment with Harris, associating her with policies they viewed as ineffective. This was particularly evident among Black and Latino voters who had previously leaned Democratic but felt let down by her stance on issues like inflation and immigration. A 30-year-old Black educator from Texas shared, “She was core assistant to Joe Biden and they are both responsible for not managing inflation and cost of living among Americans. I see no good that Kamala Harris would do as president of America…Her stance on Immigrants largely made me decide against voting for her.”
Likewise, Latino participants voiced concerns about Harris’s approach, with a 52-year-old Texas woman noting, “I dislike Trump and think he’s an immoral man in general, but I have very strong beliefs on abortion, immigration and climate change. Trump aligned with 2/3 of my main concerns. Harris did not align with my views.”
Support for Strong Immigration and National Security Policies
In contrast to voters’ perceptions of Harris’s policies, Trump’s strong stance on immigration was another deciding factor, especially for Latino and young voters concerned about the effects of immigration on local communities. A 26-year-old mother from Utah stated, “I loved his immigration policy because there are so many scary people that aren’t supposed to be here. He is going to send them back home.”
Similarly, many voters were drawn to Trump’s policies for national security, viewing them as a crucial response to rising crime and safety concerns in their communities. As a 39-year-old Independent voter noted, “Seeing the women that were killed or harmed by illegal immigrants or illegal gang members made me fearful for my wife and daughters and other family members in my life.”
Policy Alignment Over Personal Appeal
Despite reservations about Trump’s personality, particularly among young and Independent Trump supporters, voters chose to prioritize policy alignment over character. A 21-year-old college student from Texas explained, “Yes, I don’t greatly approve of or support him. He is polarizing…and extreme in some measures (which may be a good thing if done well, to be fair). His platform also seems unfortunately to provide a safe space for racists and extremists…”
Some voters chose Trump despite acknowledging personal reservations, saying they felt a “hold your nose and vote” obligation to support policies they saw as more beneficial. A 34-year-old Independent White woman from Washington expressed, “I find the rhetoric that he throws around that is incredibly hateful towards minorities and women to be completely offensive. The amount of cursing and hateful speech he gives makes my skin crawl.”
However, the vast majority of the voters we surveyed indicated that they did not perceive any conflict at all with their decision to vote for Trump.
So Where Did Harris Fall Short?
Besides aligning with more conservative policies proposed by Trump over Harris’s more progressive platform, many voters felt Kamala Harris lacked the experience and authenticity they were looking for in a leader. Some Black and Latino voters expressed frustration with her approach to economic and immigration issues, blaming her for failing to manage inflation and for perceived leniency on immigration, which they felt contributed to rising crime. As a 29-year-old biracial man from Texas described, “She was in charge of the border situation since she took office, and I live very close to the border so I have a unique lens. I am in constant fear for my life over the illegal murderer immigrants that live near me. They took over my apartment complex and it is even dangerous for me to walk my dog. They are all gang members, and they have a lot of money. I feel she is responsible for these people terrorizing my neighborhood.”
For others, Harris’s responses seemed evasive or insincere; they viewed her as unwilling to take strong stances or address tough questions directly. Independent voters, in particular, felt she was out of touch, relying on celebrity endorsements and vague promises rather than concrete policies. As this Independent voter from PA put it, “She is a complete phony, both as a person and on policy. She has no conviction on any of her stances and it was obvious to me she was just saying whatever she thought gave her the best chance of getting elected. She often cannot even articulate her beliefs, and when she does it is a jumbled and confusing mess. She thought she could buy support and good will by assembling an army of celebrities who are completely out of touch with everyday Americans, and I question her intelligence quite a bit.”
It’s this sense of disconnect and perceived ineffectiveness that, in part, drove these voters to support Trump.
In sum, Trump garnered broad-based appeal across diverse demographics. Despite their varied backgrounds and individual concerns, Black, Latino, young, and Independent voters found common ground in Trump’s policies. This convergence allowed him to build a broad coalition of support, culminating in a decisive victory.
In-Depth Voter Interviews from Engage
To provide more insight into what Engage is and how it works, our research team at CloudResearch has selected interview transcripts that stood out to us.
39-year-old biracial man, Independent, from Texas
34-year-old Black man, Republican, from Delaware
29-year-old White man, Independent, from Minnesota
40-year-old White woman, Independent, from Georgia
20-year-old Latina woman, Independent, from Florida
