Based on a July 17th, 2025 Siena College and CloudResearch poll, a 47% plurality of New Yorkers believe that the country’s best days are behind us. These economic outlooks are strongly influenced by political affiliation, with Democrats expressing significantly more pessimism than Republicans. For example, while two-thirds of Republicans are optimistic about their personal financial future, less than half of Democrats feel the same. To understand the “why” behind this data, the Siena College Research Institute partnered with CloudResearch to conduct AI-assisted, in-depth interviews with 114 of the poll’s respondents.
Among most New York State residents, pessimism about the economy is driven by immediate financial pressures:
“I live on a net income of $1400. The county I live in has no transportation system in the rural areas so a vehicle and everything it entails are necessary. However, Social Services doesn’t account for such things so I am not entitled for EBT… I was the poor working class and there is no way out.”
There is also general concern that rising costs are hitting households directly:
“The utilities have gone up 18% this year and property taxes are also rising.”
However, while New Yorkers of all political backgrounds are feeling the squeeze of a high cost of living, this shared anxiety does not explain the starkly different outlooks of Democrats and Republicans on the nation’s economic future. A closer look at our in-depth interviews reveals that the gap in pessimism is driven by which level of government citizens trust or, more pointedly, distrust.
For Democrats, a broad spectrum of fears appears to stem from a singular, overarching theme: the policies and conduct of the Trump administration. This was a dominant theme for a substantial number of Democrats, while being almost entirely absent from our conversations with Republicans. This central anxiety then cascades into more specific economic worries, such as concerns about Social Security and Medicare cuts, tariffs, unpredictable trade policies, and unequal distributions of wealth (see Figure 1).
In all of these cases, Democrats express deep concerns about the future of the economy. For instance, the future of social safety nets was a major topic of discussion, with one person, soon to retire, voicing direct concern about President Trump “blowing up social security and medicare“. Furthermore, unpredictable trade policies were another recurring worry that Democrats linked to economic instability. These fears were often tied to a broader perception that the system is designed to help the wealthy, exacerbated by the current government:
“Wealth disparity in the US has reached insane levels, and the current administration seems intent on dismantling what limited social support systems exist.”
Conversely, Republicans’ optimism about the future of the economy stems from a general trust in President Trump and his economic policies (see Figure 2):
“Just waiting on our President. He made promises and I expect him to keep them like last time.”
They convey a sense that the Trump administration will reduce taxes and stimulate favorable conditions for their personal finances as “President Trump is fixing Biden’s mess”. And they also place their trust in Trump’s America first policies:
“I believe Trump’s push to bring jobs back to United States, and he doesn’t want war”.
Energy policy generates particular enthusiasm among Republicans, who believe domestic production initiatives will have broad economic benefits, with participants saying:
“He’s taken the handcuffs off the energy producers.”
“Bringing down energy prices deters inflation.”
Government efficiency efforts also resonate strongly, with participants supporting waste reduction measures:
“Finding people on social security and medicare that don’t belong or are dead!”
While another respondent stated:
“I also applaud the attempt to bring back financial accountability to the different government agencies in the form of D.O.G.E.”
While Republicans have a positive view of the Trump administration, our interviews show that their frustrations are pointed in a different direction. They are far more likely to voice concerns at the local and state levels. Their pessimism is often fueled by a disdain for New York State’s policies, with some residents viewing relocation as a financial strategy to escape what they see as a burdensome environment:
“…looking to move outside of nyc when I retire in order to buy an affordable home and to minimize taxes. cannot live here in retirement – too expensive and city is always run by left of center politicians so I doubt it will improve.”
Republicans commonly expressed frustration with Democratic policies on economic outcomes:
“Our leadership in NY is placing illegals and Tish James above the taxpayer.”
For some Republicans the sentiment is even more stark:
“Sell everything in NY and get out.”
This focus on local leadership, rather than federal policy, marks a clear distinction in the source of their pessimism.
Ultimately, while many New Yorkers share the burden of immediate financial pressures, the interviews reveal a stark political divide on the path to prosperity. For many Democrats, the primary economic threat is the national political climate, fearing that the Trump administration’s policies on trade and social safety nets will trigger a recession. Conversely, Republicans see those same policies—focused on tax cuts, deregulation, and an ‘America First’ agenda—as the precise solution that will stimulate growth. This demonstrates that for many voters, their outlook on the economy is not based solely on their personal financial situation. Instead, it is fundamentally shaped by their political identity and, most critically, by their trust in the government leaders currently in power.
Figure 1. Economic Concerns Segmented by Political Party
Figure 2. Economic Confidence by Political Party
To provide more insight into what Engage is and how it works, below we include abridged transcripts from four interviews.
White woman, 62, Democrat:
White woman, 62, Republican:
Asian man, 27, Democrat:
White woman, 67, Democrat:
CloudResearch is an online platform that connects researchers with more than 100 million research participants worldwide. CloudResearch provides tools to carry out complex online projects and polls for the academic, public, and private sectors. Engage is CloudResearch’s latest research innovation, using AI to combine the power of traditional and conversational surveys at scale. Engage® is protected by U.S. Patents Nos. 12,243,066; 12,254,873; and 12,314,969 B1, granted in 2025.
Contact: Leib Litman, PhD, CloudResearch, Chief Research Officer, leib.litman@cloudresearch.com
Founded in 1980, the Siena College Research Institute conducts regional, statewide and national surveys on business, economic, political, voter, social, academic and historical issues. Recognized as one of the premier polling centers in the nation, the Siena College Research Institute has achieved an exceptional A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight and in both 2022 and 2023, was honored as the number one polling institute in the United States by the same outlet for its unparalleled accuracy and commitment to excellence.
Contact: Don Levy, Ph.D., Director, Siena College Research Institute, 518-783-2901, dlevy@siena.edu
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